May 24, 2016 at 10:31PM: Pushback on Chiropractic

From time to time we respond directly to reader comments or e-mails in an article, when it seems that doing so would be a useful teachable moment. One of the strengths of social media is that it is interactive – it is part didactic and part interactive.

I feel it is very important to respond to what people actual believe and say, because otherwise we may tend to get lost in our own narrative, as legitimate as it might be. That is the essence of ivory tower syndrome, academics talking to themselves without a reasonable sense of what is happening in society. Part of our mission is to interact with society, not just our colleagues, and to engage in a serious conversation about the nature of science and medicine.

To that end, I recently received an e-mail responding to an interview I had done previously about chiropractic. The e-mail is full of pro-chiropractic propaganda and misconceptions, and so it provides an opportunity to address some of these claims.

It begins:

Your piece/video that was aired on MSN on Chiropractic / Chiropractors is a disappointment due to your lack of professionalism. I think the offensive parts are your deliberation on where Chiropractic stemmed from, of which you are incorrect on the origin or how it works and the level of skill it takes to be a Dr. of Chiropractic.

The charge of lack of professionalism or something similar is very common for the regular contributors to SBM. Sometimes the ad hominem approach rises to absurd levels (as David Gorski is unfortunately now experiencing), but often those who disagree with our position or feel threatened by it react personally.

There is often the implicit or explicit premise that being critical at all is unprofessional, or that everyone who considers themselves to be a health care professional deserves equal respect and should be treated as a colleague. However, we feel it is necessary to challenge the very legitimacy of certain professions, and to criticize them for not having a science-based standard of care, chiropractic included. If you disagree with our position, then address the facts and logic, crying “unprofessionalism” is just petulant.

It was not some divine intervention or hocus pocus, DD Palmer learned of the art of manipulation and it’s benefits from a form of Chinese medicine with ties to acupuncture that was practiced for centuries in Asia which also has ties to your profession – he was although the first to market it and its benefits in the USA, of which is practiced all over the world today helping people out of pain and in many cases back to not good but great health.

Here comes the standard chiropractic narrative. It is interesting how such narratives, like a religion, can evolve over time, and new generations come to believe the blatant historical revisionism as if it is fact.

In this case, however, we have DD Palmer’s own words to enlighten us – published in his 1910 book:

Harvey Lillard, a janitor, in the Ryan Block, where I had my office, had been so deaf for 17 years that he could not hear the racket of a wagon on the street or the ticking of a watch. I made inquiry as to the cause of his deafness and was informed that when he was exerting himself in a cramped, stooping position, he felt something give way in his back and immediately became deaf. An examination showed a vertebra racked from its normal position. I reasoned that if that vertebra was replaced. the man’s hearing should be restored. With this object in view, a half-hour’s talk persuaded Mr. Lillard to allow me to replace it. I racked it into position by using the spinous process as a lever and soon the man could hear as before. There was nothing “accidental” about this, as it was accomplished with an object in view, and the result expected was obtained. There was nothing “crude” about this adjustment; it was specific, so much so that no Chiropractor has equaled it.

and

I founded Chiropractic on Osteology, Neurology and FunctionsÑbones, nerves and the manifestations of impulses. I originated the art of adjusting vertebrae and the knowledge of every principle which is included in the construction of the science of Chiropractic.

There is no mention of acupuncture, although the subluxation theory of chiropractic is a vitalistic belief, as is the modern formulation of acupuncture. Palmer’s story of fixing the deaf janitor is almost certainly nonsense. If it were accidental, Palmer changed the story over time to fit the narrative he needed as an origin of the pseudoscience he apparently invented.

He does make reference to osteopathy, which was a similar pseudoscience. Subluxation theory states, in short, that disease is caused by the compression of nerves by misalignments in the spine which block the flow of life energy. Osteopathy is similar, but believes the misalignments of bones block the flow of blood.

To say that subluxation theory is based on neurology, however, is like saying that astrology is based in astronomy, only in the most superficial sense, and without any of the actual science.

In fact the science of neurology contradicts all the major premises of subluxation theory. Compression of spinal nerves generally causes pain, numbness, and weakness in some combination. Subluxation theory claims that spinal nerve compression can exist without these symptoms, but block only the mystical life energy whose alleged existence has eluded science to this day.

The history is quite clear. Palmer, by his own account, started out as a “magnetic healer” (in other words, a quack) and then discovered and developed chiropractic almost out of whole cloth, with some inspiration from vitalism and osteopathy. Chiropractic is not based on an ancient Chinese secret, but that is a clear attempt to make an argument from antiquity (a common fallacy used to support dubious treatments).

The modern chiropractic narrative relayed by the e-mailer is nothing but retconning – retroactively fitting the history of chiropractic to the current marketing narrative. “We’ve always been at war with Eastasia”

He continues:

Leander Eckhart scientifically proved the value of manipulation with passive motion controlled traction using video fluoroscopy at the U of W  as to correcting spinal fixations, along with his research and work correcting Scoliosis, documenting physiological changes, so you are incorrect there too.

This is a common tactic of pseudoscience also – citing research which does not establish the basic principles of the claim as if it does. Chiropactors, even though they have had over a century to do so, have not demonstrated scientifically that chiropractic subluxations exist, than manipulation can “correct” alleged subluxations, that such subluxations are associated with any specific disease or that “innate intelligence” (their word for the vitalistic life energy) exists, or that chiropractic manipulation improves any disease.

None of their basic premises have been demonstrated scientifically, and in fact their claims are incompatible with modern medical science.

Keep in mind, I am referring here to subluxation theory specifically. Contemporary chiropractors have a broad range of practice, and some practice something closer to physical therapy or sports medicine, without treating disease through subluxation theory.

Being a professional using modern (scientific?) arguments against century old beliefs is a fail on so many levels not to mention a cheap shot with no scientific support or merit. Turnabout would be fair play if one was to look at your profession and there are many skeletons in that closet.

This is a very odd claim. I think the unstated premise here is that chiropractors no longer practice the century old beliefs of their profession. If this were true, then he might have a point, but it is clearly not true.

To give an analogy, I have written about phrenology, the practice of determining personality through reading the bumps on the outside of the skull. This was practiced by neurologists two centuries ago. There is a tiny fringe that still practice phrenology, but not within the medical or neurological professions. I wrote about it for historical interest only, not as a criticism of modern neurologists.

If subluxation theory had been abandoned entirely by the chiropractic profession the situation would be the same. In fact, I don’t spend time criticizing modern osteopaths for their outdated beliefs (although there appears to still be a fringe who cling to them). Largely osteopaths have rejected the pseudoscience of their past and embraced science-based standards.

As a profession chiropractors have not rejected the pseudoscience of their origin. By some estimates about 30% of chiropractors still practice according to subluxation theory. They are pseudoscientists. And this is not some fringe. The British Chiropractic Association famously fought with Simon Singh over their support of blatantly pseudoscientific current chiropractic practices, and lost spectacularly. They defended manipulation for the treatment of a long list of childhood diseases and disorders, based upon terrible science, which I dutifully deconstructed on SBM.

Subluxation theory is not a skeleton in the closet. It is a living breathing part of modern chiropractic.

Would it be too much to ask for you to be professional, most Chiropractors are, they have much more education that most MD’s and Specialists, with a minimum of 2 years pre-med before they can enter into the 4 year program to become a Dr. of Chiropractic and compulsory ongoing annual continuing education to keep their license.

Yes, it is too much. The chiropractic profession, in my opinion, does not deserve professional respect. They tolerate pseudoscience in their ranks, and do not have a reasonable standard of care. They are not science-based as a profession.

The claim that chiropractors have more education than most MD’s is pure propaganda, and is very telling.  We have covered the issue of chiropractic education before, so I won’t go into it again in detail. Suffice it to say chiropractic basic science and clinical education is not even close to what MDs receive.

Conclusion

The e-mailer ends with the usual tu quoque logical fallacy – more MDs have killed patients than chiropractors. This misses the risk vs benefit context, and also is not a meaningful comparison because of the relative size of the professions. The claim is just more misleading propaganda.

If chiropractors wish to defend themselves from science-based criticism, they should do proper research and then adjust their practice based upon the results of that research. They should align their profession with modern science.

Instead, they generally attack the messenger, attack the medical profession, demand respect they have not earned, and revise history to suit their marketing needs.

 



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May 16, 2016 at 12:05AM: The Cheap Ticket Into the Elite Class

elitekidsIf you ask a modern member of today’s American Elite to review Mr. Money Mustache’s childhood and educational history, the report would probably come back dripping with sympathy and disdain.

I went to public school (the only school, really), in a lower-middle income small town. I didn’t join many extracurricular activities or attend any private lessons.  I traveled by airplane only twice between birth and age 20. My parents didn’t buy me a car or act as my personal chauffeur and I paid for most of my own University education by banking the proceeds of minimum wage jobs starting at age fifteen. And I would never expect anyone to pay for my wedding or leave me an inheritance.

But despite this painful shortage of luxury and privilege, I always felt very well off. And now I have somehow ended up with a life that sits at the very pinnacle of good fortune. Swimming in an incredible surplus of wealth, happiness, energy, ideas, and a support network of other fortunate people.

As much as I’d like to chalk this up to some superior combination of personal moral character, amazing intelligence and Badassity, the truth is that much of it comes from a gift that my parents gave me as a child: an absolutely Elite education.

How Important is a Fancy Education?

A recent round of complaints in the East Coast media has been making the rounds recently, sparked off by an article in the Atlantic called “The Secret Shame of Middle-Class Americans“. In that lengthy tale, the notable and succesful author Neal Gabler reveals that he is actually broke, and has been for decades. He admits that his fate is self-imposed: he just spends money without thinking about the long-term implications.

But he also reveals a very common bias in US society: that spending an absolute shitload of money on your children is a necessary and advantageous thing to do. You could sum up our generous but financially suicidal belief system in this quote from his story:

“I never wanted to keep up with the Joneses. But, like many Americans, I wanted my children to keep up with the Joneses’ children, because I knew how easily my girls could be marginalized in a society where nearly all the rewards go to a small, well-educated elite. (All right, I wanted them to be winners.)”

A later article in the Atlantic called “The Circles of American Financial Hell” suffered from much the same bias: the story reviews the common sob story that the US Middle Class can’t get ahead. And its thesis is that the problem is not really our spending on personal luxuries, it’s our valiant attempt to sacrifice everything for our children:

“…parents will spend down their last dollar (and their last borrowed dollar) on their kids’ education: In a society with dramatic income inequality and dramatic educational inequality, the cost of missing out on the best society has to offer (or, really, at the individual scale, the best any person can afford) is unfathomable.”

 

Although I feel both of these authors are out to lunch financially, I have to agree with them that a top-shelf education is incredibly valuable. But not the type of education that comes with a $200,000 tuition bill. The best part of my education cost almost nothing to acquire, and yet it seems to have delivered a much greater benefit than any Ivy League curriculum. Are you ready to learn my secret weapon? Brace yourself.

Simply Knowing how to Use a Goddamned Computer.

To the average person, this would sound like a bizarre claim. Almost every rich-country resident uses computers in some form, and yet most of them are still broke. What they’re missing is that actual deep knowledge of computers and technology is still incredibly rare. And although it can take many years to develop, it costs almost nothing to do so.

This missing tool is so powerful and yet so overlooked that I consider it a loophole in society. A ticket to a more prosperous life that most people don’t understand, because they have never experienced the effects.  Let’s resume the story of my own cheap elite education to see some of them.

My Secret Advantage through Technology

Almost every one of the few million dollars I’ve earned in my life so far has been directly related to being unusually good with computers.

Sure, there were a few bucks around the side earned by operating a gas pumps and cash registers as a teenager, and table saws and nailguns after retirement. But the rest of it comes from being able to take these machines and make them do valuable things.

If you have any rare skill, you can then easily create value that companies and individuals are willing to pay for. But if you have the rare skill of technology, you can also apply it to your own life, creating an automated money and happiness machine.

As a student, more comfort with computers allowed me to get better marks in less time and organize my life’s information. I could use the early versions of the Internet (which used to be difficult to use) to harvest ideas from Stanford students and professors while more traditional students were stuck with textbooks. Then the advantage helped me get better, more technical jobs and present information more clearly to the bosses, which led to even better jobs. From that vantage point I could research career opportunities in other countries and figure out how to do an international move. Using computers to get things done, and getting paid to write software for them, was an incredibly lucrative career path back then, and it’s even better today.

Even after retiring from the tech industry, computers help me automate my finances and purchasing, so I can keep more money at work with less wasted time and fewer expensive mistakes. They let me create better photographs and descriptions on Craigslist and real estate websites, which let me sell or rent things for more money, and buy them for less. Even this Mr. Money Mustache website, which makes money even as it persuades you to waste less money, is only possible at this scale with relatively complicated computer fiddling.

The Business World is Still Mostly Clueless

Earlier this month, I was booking a concrete truck so I could pour the foundation for my new garage. I did some online research to figure out which companies operate in my area, but I found that every one of their websites was just an online version of a Yellow Pages ad. There was no way to place an order and their contact page was a list of telephone numbers. Telephones!

So I called one of the bigger outfits. A guy named Joe answered.

Me: “Hi, I need to order 15 cubic yards of concrete for next Wednesday”

Joe: “Look, if ya need to order concrete for Wednesdee, ya call me on Tuesdee after 12 noon. Until 12, I’m workin’ deliveries for that same mornin'”

So I called back the following Tuesday. I thought I’d be an early bird and call at 11:45 just to make sure I got my order in.

Joe: “Naw, naw. If ya need concrete for tomorra’, ya call me back after twelve ‘a’ clock this afternoon!”

Concrete is not a niche cottage industry like homemade salsa – this is $35 billion chunk of the economy that is critical to building almost everything. A single loaded truck carries $1500 of the stuff, and there are 50,000 of these trucks in circulation in the US. And yet not only have they not discovered computers, even the concept of a notebook with two separate pages (“today’s orders” and “tomorrow’s orders”) was foreign to this outfit.

This story is just an extreme example of a market opportunity that is still fresh and ripe in our society as a whole. We have computers, but a deeper understanding of how to technology works is still rare. Almost every big company that I’ve observed is still clunking along, trying to adapt to technology rather than fully benefiting from it. Think about the concept of a car dealership network, for example. Millions or billions of dollars of land and inventory in every single city, devoted to.. letting people see cars they could easily buy online and have delivered?

On an individual level, if your phone starts acting funny after you return from a long vacation, do you call Apple support for help, or do you look at the at the device’s internal storage to see if you need to delete some stuff to free up space? Is it wiser to transfer music files over WiFi or Bluetooth? If your computer starts crashing right after you get a sprinkler system installed, do you start shopping for a new one, or go outside to verify that the ground cable from your power panel wasn’t accidentally disconnected? Mustachians probably know things like this, but what about the average person?

Everybody uses technology. But those of us who truly understand it down to the core have an immense advantage in all areas of life: making money, keeping that money, absorbing information, and even communicating ideas with other people. Whether you are an investor or a filmmaker, house builder, engineer, or attorney, mastery of this rare skill will multiply your efforts more than a technophobe can even understand.

When you apply this idea to a large group of people working together, you end up with companies that very easily vacuum up all of the business in their industry (Google, Amazon), while their less technically savvy competitors wither in a puddle of fax machines and expense accounts of traveling salespeople.

Computers aren’t just for nerdy introverts any more – they can be a ticket to wealth, success, even friendships and romance. In other words, the core of a truly elite education is becoming an absolute badass with computers.

Bringing this around to our middle class Expensive Wannabee Elite educational expenses, I believe that deep technical badassity is an even more useful part of an education than an expensive degree.

How To Become a Computer Badass

You don’t learn technology by taking courses or reading instruction manuals. You need to be immersed in the stuff. Using it constantly, and understanding not only how to use things, but how they were designed and what the person who designed it was probably thinking about as they came up with each aspect of the product. Only if you understand the designer, can you truly understand the technology they invent.

For example, if you’re a computer badass and you get a new gadget or program or an app, the first thing  you do is to try every single option on every single menu and submenu, and find out what it does. You don’t just dive in and start playing a new video game – first you have to check the graphics options and make sure you’ve set the resolution and texture levels to the very best that your video card will handle smoothly. Then you poke around on discussion boards and fan websites to see what the “modding” community is up to, and make some modifications yourself.

You don’t want an analog speedometer on your car, you want a spreadsheet showing every parameter that the engine computer is measuring, updated at least a few times per second, with complete graphable history since the car’s date of manufacture. To a technology badass, understanding how things actually work brings joy, power, and peace.

To provide an elite education for our kids, I suggest that we spend less time thinking about prestigious neighborhood and school districts, and more time giving kids access to complicated stuff early, and often. Then bringing these lessons, in the form of suggestions, presentations, donations and volunteer time, to your own school district.

My gift came in 1984, in the form of a Commodore 64 system my parents stretched the budget to bring home. My siblings and I worked that thing until its keyboard was blank and polished, and it kicked off a life of deep comfort with technology. I was given the freedom to spend hours connecting with these machines, and by extension the people who invented them.

Then in 1990 I found a Commodore Amiga for sale on a BBS newsgroup, a nerdy precursor to Craigslist that only technical people knew how to use. I traded $800 of my earnings from working at the gas station, for what would eventually be another six-figure quantity of computer experience.

Throughout high school, in addition to the normal curriculum of calculus and physics, pool parties and girlfriends, beer and marijuana, I also had countless late nights with my Amiga, which were getting me ahead in life far more than I could realize.

So in my house, I’m hoping to try the same trick.

The Mustachian Elite Education 

(for children and even adults)

  • No broadcast TV service, but very fast Internet access and a computer (and phone) you maintain yourself
  • Minimal access to cars, but always a very nice bike kept in perfect repair
  • Limited access to tourist attractions and gift shops, maximum access to Nature
  • Support but do not mandate sports teams or formal lessons. But keep sports and musical equipment handy around the house.
  • Less scheduling, more opportunity for self-guided activities. Boredom can be the trigger for creativity.
  • Whenever possible, say yes to  friends, sleepovers and late bedtimes.

Cost: Less than most families seeking elite status spend on their house cleaning service.

 

After a childhood education like that, college is more of an afterthought. Living a Mustachian lifestyle while raising kids will ensure that you would have plenty of money to pay for any education they want. But then again, so will your kids, so why not give them the advantage of paying for it themselves?

But they’ll also already have access to an unlimited supply of people, money, ideas and knowledge. Visiting a campus to take some classes in person is just one of the many options available at that point, rather than the desperate lottery ticket to the good life, as portrayed in the Atlantic.

Further Reading – a great Susan Cain book called Quiet recently made the rounds in our family. It’s about why introverts are great, and how to support their joyful and creative lives (especially if you are raising one, or are one yourself).

 



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May 12, 2016 at 01:03AM: Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - ADHD

Hovertext: Dad! It's 3AM! I don't wanna paint the shed again!


New comic!
Today's News:


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May 5, 2016 at 01:53PM: A 29-Year Study Has Found No Link Between Brain Cancer and Cellphones

If, and by how much cellphones increase the risk of brain cancer is a long and disputed argument. No one study is going to settle anything, but one statistical analysis of data in Australia hints at cellphones being reasonably safe.

Read more...



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May 03, 2016 at 06:00AM: SpaceX Wants to Go to Mars—and It Actually Can

So, SpaceX wants to send a spaceship to Mars as early as 2018.

Wait. Seriously?

Yup. Last week, Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, made the startling announcement on Twitter:

He wrote, “Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details to come.”

My very first thought when I read this was, “He thinks they can land a three-ton uncrewed Dragon capsule on Mars in the next couple of years? Something heavier than any other payload ever dropped on Mars, and from a company that hasn’t even sent anything anywhere near that far?”

Then I mulled it over for a moment. To my own astonishment, I realized, “Huh. Yeah. In fact they can do this.”

Now look, it won’t be easy, not by a long shot. But Musk’s claim isn’t out of the blue—SpaceX has been working toward this for years. What it comes down to is key pieces of technology still untested in flight but currently being developed, as well as SpaceX maintaining its current launch schedule.

But in the end, it’s feasible that in a few years, a Dragon capsule will sit on the surface of Mars*.

First, let’s take a look at the spaceship that would do the actual landing. The Dragon V2 is an upgraded version of the Dragon capsule currently being used to send supplies up to the International Space Station. Dragon V1 has been sent to space and back successfully many times already.

The V2 upgrades are extensive, including adding the ability to carry seven astronauts to ISS. But as far as a Mars trip goes, the most important upgrade is the addition of SuperDraco thrusters; four sets of two engines around the outside edge of the capsule. These are powerful, designed to be able to rapidly carry away the capsule in case of rocket failure during flight. But they’re also critical for landing on Mars.

The atmosphere of Mars is very thin, but it’s there. You can’t ignore it if you want to land on the planet; at interplanetary speeds a capsule will burn up as it plows through the air if steps aren’t taken. Sending smaller probes to the surface (like early landers and rovers) used a combination of aerobraking (drag on the spacecraft to slow it down), parachutes, and in the case of Curiosity a rocket crane that slowed to a hover over the surface to deploy the rover.

A Dragon V2 is too big for any of these options; a parachute big enough to slow it down would be shredded under those stresses. Instead, the plan is to use an advanced heat shield on the bottom to slow it down enough that the SuperDracos can take over, landing the Dragon V2 safely on the surface.

This has never been done before, but SpaceX has been slowly learning how to do it, and you’ve probably seen it happen: the return of the Falcon 9 first stage boosters. To return to Earth, the booster flips around and does a “boostback burn” to slow its motion. Even though there have been many attempts to land the booster, and only two successes, that doesn’t mean all was lost. The data retrieved from all the attempts are precious steps toward understanding how to do a “supersonic retropropulsion” burn to slow a vehicle in air … under conditions very similar to the conditions a Dragon capsule will face entering the Martian atmosphere.

That’s no coincidence. Every booster return is like a real-life simulation of a Mars landing. So SpaceX has been amassing quite a bit of information on how to do this.

In fact, they’ve been sharing that data with NASA in exchange for technical advice on deep space planning and support. No money has changed hands, just the trade of information. NASA has also pledged communications and telemetry support using their Deep Space Network in exchange for the data from an uncrewed mission to Mars using the Dragon V2.

So it looks like the Dragon V2 can get down to the surface of Mars from space. But how does SpaceX plan to get it to Mars in the first place?

Right now, the company has contracts with NASA and other groups for launches using its Falcon 9, their workhorse two-stage rocket. The Falcon 9 is a capable booster. There have been 23 launches of Falcon 9 so far, with 22 successes and one failure (that last tracked to a faulty support strut inside the booster; those have been upgraded since that time).

It can even be used to send a payload to Mars, as long as that payload has a mass less than about 4,000 kilograms (8,800 pounds, or four tons). That’s not bad, but not nearly enough to get a Dragon V2 capsule down to the surface—a dry (unfueled) Dragon V2 has a mass of 6,400 kilos.

Clearly, they’ll need a bigger rocket.

Enter the Falcon Heavy: This beast is essentially three Falcon 9 first stage boosters strapped together, providing a much larger payload capability. It can hypothetically send up to 13,600 kilograms to Mars. That easily covers the mass of the capsule and fuel, and would still have a few tons of capacity left for scientific instruments.

So, great. Use the Falcon Heavy to throw a Dragon V2 at Mars, and use the knowledge gained over the past few years to drop the capsule safely to the surface.

Except, hang on. SpaceX isn’t quite there yet. While all of this makes sense on paper, they haven’t actually tested all this hardware in flight. The Falcon Heavy has never been flown. But at the Satellite 2016 conference held in March, Gwynne Shotwell, president of SpaceX, said that the first Falcon Heavy flight may be late this year, possibly in November. That launch, from Florida, is also planned to include recovery of all three first stage boosters, two on land and one on a floating barge in the Atlantic (this is basically a three-fold test of the single booster relanding after launch). Over the next couple of years there will be more flights as well, which will hopefully work out the bugs and build confidence in the rocket.

Of course, the Dragon V2 hasn’t flown yet either. However, it has been tested extensively on the ground, including a “pad abort test,” a NASA requirement for crew-rated vehicles to make sure it can take astronauts away to safety if there’s a launch emergency:

(Click here for an amazing capsule-eye view of the abort test.)

The capsule should be tested in flight this year as well. SpaceX has said it wants to send a crew to space on the Dragon V2 in the next year or so, and already has an order from NASA to send a crew to ISS (though no date has been specified, 2018 is a decent guess).

So, SpaceX being able to go to Mars depends critically on flight-testing both the rocket and the capsule lander. But both of those tests are in the works and may happen quite soon. And, if they test successfully, SpaceX will turn its eyes to Mars.

Which brings me back to Musk’s tweet. Red Dragon is the name of the mission to send a Dragon V2 to Mars. The information learned from that mission will then be used to figure out how to send larger and more ambitious missions.

And make no mistake, Musk is determined to put people on Mars; I interviewed him on this topic in 2015, and he stated plainly, “Humans need to be a multiplanet species.”

We’re not there yet. SpaceX isn’t there yet either; quite a lot rests on the successful tests of Falcon Heavy and Dragon V2—and more, for that matter. Details of the actual mission profile (for example, what kinds of potential payloads it might carry) haven’t been released yet; the company plans on discussing all this at the International Astronautical Congress in Mexico this September. Realistically, the 2018 goal may get pushed back a year or two due to inevitable delays; there’s a long way to go and a lot to do before this mission literally gets off the ground. But SpaceX is very serious about it.

And, in my opinion, it's quite capable of accomplishing it.

Post script: My colleague Eric Berger wrote two excellent articles on this topic: “Can SpaceX Really Land on Mars? Absolutely, Says an Engineer Who Would Know” and “Why Landing a Flying, Fire-Breathing Red Dragon on Mars Is Huge.” You’ll find a lot more details there. I’ll note we agree that SpaceX can in fact achieve this goal.

* Correction, May 3, 2016: I originally wrote that SpaceX would land a craft on Mars as soon as 2018, but that's not precisely true; they plan on sending one to Mars then. The difference is travel time; it takes about six months to get to Mars from Earth. I updated my wording to reflect that. Also, I wrote that SPaceX hadn't sent anything beyond low Earth orbit, but they did deploy DSCOVR which is in the Earth-Sun L1 point, 1.5 million km from Earth.



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